In the aftermath of the euro cash changeover consumers’ inflation perceptions rose substantially in the euro area countries while actual inflation figures remained almost unchanged. During that period media reporting on the potentially large inflationary effect of the euro introduction...

We investigate whether the KOF Barometer–a leading indicator regularly released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute–can be useful for short-term out-of-sample prediction of year-on-year quarterly real GDP growth rates in Switzerland. We find that the KOF Barometer appears to be useful for...

This study investigates the usefulness of the business tendency surveys collected at the KOF institute for short-term forecasting of employment in Switzerland aggregated in the KOF Employment Indicator. We use the real time dataset in order to simulate the actual predictive process using only...