We introduce a non-linear model to study the adjustment of fiscal policy variables in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain over the last 50 years, based on endogenously estimated budget deficit-to-GDP thresholds, which vary with fiscal disequilibria, the economic cycle and financial market...

Using UK data over the 1973q1-2004q1 period, we find that the dynamics of the real exchange rate, real wages and unemployment vary both with large versus small real exchange rate disequilibria and rising versus falling unemployment regimes. The short-run real exchange rate adjusts only when...

We assess the sustainability of the public finances of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS), allowing for possible non-linearities in the form of threshold behaviour of the fiscal authorities. We provide some evidence of fiscal sustainability when debt gets “too highâ€...