Recent research suggests that social cost-benefit analysis should be con- ducted with a declining discount rate. For instance, Newell and Pizer [23] show that the U.S. certainty-equivalent discount rate declines through time, using a simple autoregressive model of U.S. interest rates. This paper...

We examine convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among 128 countries for the period 1960-2003 by means of a new methodology introduced by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica, 2007). Contrary to previous studies, our approach allows us to examine for evidence of club convergence, i.e. identify...

This paper employs a new methodology for measuring the contribution of growth and interest rate differentials to the half-life of deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Our method is based on directly comparing the impulse response function of a VAR model, where the real exchange rate is...

We test for shift contagion between pairs of East Asian equity markets over a sample including the financial crisis of the 1990’s. Employing the methodology of Gravelle et al. (2006), we find little evidence of change in the mechanism by which common shocks are transmitted between countries....

In this paper we reexamine the linkages between output growth and real stock price changes for the G7 countries using a battery of non-parametric procedures to account for the impact of long-lagged observations. We find that correlation between growth and returns is detected at larger horizons...

We examine if the benefits of international portfolio diversification are robust to time-varying asset return volatility. Since diversified portfolios are subject to common cross-country shocks, we focus on the transmission mechanism of such shocks in the presence of regime-switching volatility....

We test for contagion between pairs of East Asian equity markets over the period 1990-2007. We develop an econometric methodology that allows us to test for both ‘shift’ and ‘pure’ contagion within a unified framework. Using both Hong Kong and Thailand as potential shock sources, we find...

This paper attempts a resolution of the Fisher effect puzzle in terms of estimator choice. Using both short-term and long-term interest rates for 14 OECD countries, we find ample evidence supporting the existence of a long-run Fisher effect in which interest rates move oneto- one with inflation....

This paper investigates the predictive ability of financial variables for real growth in the euro area through bivariate and multivariate non-parametric Granger causality tests. Apart from assessing the within-country forecasting ability of commonly-employed financial variables, such as the term...