President Obama's National Export Initiative is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign import-demand curves and domestic export-supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy-wide model of the...

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year the effects are...

Fifty years ago the Norwegian economist, Leif Johansen, gave us what is now recognised as the first CGE model. While Johansen was first, he is not the father of the whole field. CGE modelling in different styles sprang largely independently from several sources. This paper describes how...

Computable general equilibrium models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries. The main objective is to provide realistic baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this paper, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has...

Simulations with dynamic, single-country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring...

We derive formulas for the optimal tariff rate in four theoretical models. We start with a model in which industries are competitive and then successively allow for: monopoly pricing by export industries; revenue-replacement costs; and cold-shower effects. The theoretical formulas accurately...

TERM-H2O is a dynamic, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy with agricultural detail adapted to include regional water accounts. It focuses on the effects of inter-regional water trading. Factors of production are mobile between sectors in farm...

The contribution of an industry to the economy is often measured by an input-output calculation showing labour used directly in the industry and indirectly via the production of intermediate inputs for the industry. This paper demonstrates an alternative approach based on simulations with a...

This paper describes a practical and conceptually simple iterative method for solving large dynamic CGE models under rational expectations. Details are given for the MONASH model of Australia but the general approach could be applied to a wide range of dynamic models. The method has been...

The main ideas in this paper are: (a) that CGE models can be used in forecasting; and (b) that forecasts matter for policy analysis. We demonstrate these ideas by describing an application of MONASH, a dynamic CGE model of Australia, to the Australian motor vehicle industry over the period 1987...