This paper investigates the presence of nonlinear mechanisms of pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation in Brazil. In particular, it estimates a Phillips curve with a threshold for the pass-through. The paper examines whether the short-run magnitude of the pass-through is affected by...

We use microdata from the Credit Information System (SCR) of the Central Bank of Brazil to study the relationship between credit default and business cycles. In particular, we study the first part of the argument underlying the discussion about procyclicality related to the Basel II Accord: that...

We assess the relationship between unemployment , capacity utilization and inflation in Brazil by means of disaggregated Phillips curves Our main contribution is to consider separately the dynamics of tradable and nontradable sectors, and highlight the importance of disaggregating the roles of...

The macroeconomic effects of shocks in models of nominal rigidity depend crucially on the degree of strategic complementarity among price setters. However, the empirical evidence on its magnitude is indirect and ambiguous: the one based on macroeconomic data suggest strong strategic...

From data in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Credit Information System we empirically estimated the default correlation matrices of retail loans made between 2003 and 2008. The loan modalities studied were Consumer Credit and Vehicle Financing. We identified an increased probability and...

The aim of this paper is to promote a business cycles analysis for Brazil and Argentina, emphasizing the differences in their economic processes. The differences in economic fluctuations of each country are seen as a result of their differences in economic foundations and structural...

The aim of this paper is to develop a business cycle analysis for Brazil, Argentina and the United States, emphasizing the regime switches that occurred throughout the economic fluctuations experienced by these countries. Recent studies on business cycles have favored the international business...

This paper assesses the challenges faced by the inflation-targeting regime in Brazil. The confidence crisis in the future performance of the Brazilian economy and the increase in risk aversion in international markets were responsible for a sudden stop of capital inflows in 2002 that caused a...

This paper analyzes monetary policy implementation and convergence of inflation and inflation expectations to the targets in Brazil after the crisis in 2002. It covers the initial disinflation and subsequent economic recovery, followed by the inflation rebound and corresponding policy response,...

We develop and estimate a DSGE model for the Brazilian economy, to be used as part of the macroeconomic modeling framework at the Central Bank of Brazil. The model combines the building blocks of standard DSGE models (e.g., price and wage rigidities and adjustment costs) with the following...