We propose different exactly identified specifications of affine models with observed macri factors. The models are compared estimating Brazilian domestic and sovereign yield curves. Propomos diferentes especificações exatamente identificadas de modelos afins com fatores macroeconômicos...

We use no arbitrage models with macro variables to study the interaction between the macroeconomy and the yield curve. This interaction is a key element for monetary policy and for forecasting. The model was used to analyze the Brazilian domestic financial market using a daily dataset and two...

The evolution of the yields of different maturities is related and can be described by a reduced number of commom latent factors. Multifactor interest rate models of the finance literature, common factor models of the time series literature and others use this property. Each model has advantages...

In this paper, we analyze the productivity of farms across n = 370 municipalities located in the Center-West region of Brazil. We propose a stochastic frontier model with a latent spatial structure to account for possible unknown geographical variation of the outputs. This spatial component is...

The objective of our work is to study the term structure of interest rates and the sovereign credit spreads of emerging markets. We develop a model from term structure, credit risk and vector autoregressive models, based on the articles by Ang and Piazzesi (2003) and Ang, Dong and Piazzesi...

Este trabalho analisa, para o caso brasileiro, os condicionantes transitórios dos níveis de emprego e distribuição de renda do país, utilizando os microdados da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) produzida pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) para avaliar os efeitos de...

This paper uses VAR models to discuss two main questions: a) are the indexing mechanisms that characterised the Brazilian economy for decades a thing of the past, or could they be easily reactivated in the event of some important price shock? b) given the fiscal stance, what would be the likely...

This paper describes the inference procedures required to perform Bayesian inference to some multivariate econometric models. These models have a spatial component built into commonly used multivariate models. In particular, the seemingly unrelated regression and vector autoregressive models are...

Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLM) are useful in time series modelling because of the flexibility that they present in obtaining a good forecast. They are based on a decomposition of the relevant factors which explain the behavior of the series through a series of state parameters....

This paper presents a model for the long-run determinants of the Brazilian real exchange rate for the period 1947/95. This is a simple representative agent model that links the exchange rate, external debt and net exports. It is assumed that: a) the country pays an interest rate on its debt...