Presentation to the Little Rock Downtown Rotary Club, Little Rock - Nov. 20, 2001

Presentation to the AAIM Management Association, St. Louis, Mo. May 11, 2005

Wisconsin School of Business, Madison, Wis., June 6, 2008

This paper presents a model of economic growth based on the life-cycle hypothesis to determine the path of international capital flows as the baby boom passes through the U.S. economy. The model predicts that a baby boom causes a temporary increase in capital flow into the U.S. but the increase...

The U.S. economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard...

Address before AAIM Management Association, St. Louis, Mo., Feb. 20, 2004

Presentation to the AAIM Management Association, St. Louis, Mo. May 11, 2005

Presentation to the Little Rock Downtown Rotary Club, Little Rock - Nov. 20, 2001

We study the welfare cost of inflation in a general equilibrium life cycle model with growth, costly financial intermediation, and taxes on nominal quantities. We find a stationary equilibrium of the model matches a wide variety of facts about the postwar U.S. economy. We then calculate that the...

We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict...