Uncertainty in demographic developments lowers expected future welfare levels. Increasing current tax rates and decreasing expected future tax rates may compensate part of the welfare loss that is due to demographic uncertainty. In doing so, the government effectively pursues a precautionary...

This paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic population projections, to quantify uncertainties surrounding the consequences of population ageing for Dutch public finances. The expected increase in the ratio of...

It is well known by now that population ageing threatens the sustainability of fiscal policies in many countries. Although a number of policy options are available to address the problem, the uncertainty surrounding the future development of the population complicates matters. This paper...

It is well known by now that population ageing threatens the sustainability of fiscal policies in many countries. Although a number of policy options are available to address the problem, the uncertainty surrounding the future development of the population complicates matters. This paper...