We examine the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies in a context where disturbances to the public deficit process are a primary source of macroeconomic instability. We perform simulations of optimal targeting rules on a sticky-price model `a la Woodford (1997). Our investigation...

Yes, but only at short horizons from 1 to 3 quarters over the full post-World War II sample. The predictive relation between the yield spread and the output gap is characterized by parameter instability. Differently from the predictive models of the yield spread for output growth, structural...

This paper studies the forecasting performance of the general equilibrium model of bond yields of Marzo, Söderström and Zagaglia (2008), where long-term interest rates are an integral part of the monetary transmission mechanism. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods on Euro area data. I...

Canzoneri and Diba (2004) show that the Taylor principle is not a panacea for equilibrium determinacy in a model where bonds and money provide liquidity services to households. We consider a cashless variant of their model with two types of government bonds. One bond provides transaction...

We study the term structure implications of the fiscal theory of price level determination. We introduce the intertemporal budget constraint of the government in a general equilibrium model in continuous time. Fiscal policy is set according to a simple rule whereby taxes react proportionally to...

This note reconsiders the impact of the reform of the operational framework of the European Central Bank that took place in March 2004. We estimate a bivariate GARCH model with the overnight rate and 1-year swap rate, where identifying restrictions are imposed on the conditional variance....

I apply a multiresolution decomposition to the term spread and real-GDP growth in the U.S. Using the filtered data, I study whether the yield spread helps forecasting output. The results show that the predictive power of the yield spread varies largely across time scales both in-sample and...

I study a general-equilibrium model of the term structure where bond prices are an integral part of the monetary transmission mechanism. The model is estimated on quarterly Euro area data. I show that, besides shocks to the inflation target, also exogenous variations in money demand and bond...

We study the joint movements of the returns on futures for crude oil, heating oil and natural gas at a daily frequency. We model the leptokurtic behavior through the multivariate GARCH with dynamic conditional correlations and elliptical distributions introduced by Pelagatti and Rondena (2004)....

We study the pattern of contagion in volatility along the term structure of oil forwards. We use measures of codependence of returns from quantile regressions to discriminate between integration of the markets for different maturities in the cases of low and high volatility of the returns. Our...