This paper tests the well-known real business cycle model of Kydland and Prescott (1988), using spectral methods for linear filters. Model spectra, coherencies, phase shifts, and correlations are tested against U.S. post-war data using both asymptotic and small-sample distributions. Compared...

We examine the daily activity and performance of a large panel of individual investors in Sweden's Premium Pension System in the period 2000 to 2010. We find that active investors outperform passive investors, and that there is a causal effect of fund changes on performance. Chosen funds...

We examine the daily activity and performance of a large panel of individual investors in Sweden's Premium Pension System in the period 2000 to 2010. We find that active investors outperform passive investors, and that there is a causal effect of fund changes on performance. Chosen funds...

Stein's lemma is extended to the case where asset returns have skewed and leptokurtic distributions. The risk premium is still the negative of the covariance of the excess return with the log stochastic discount factor. The risk-neutral distribution has a simple form but is a nontrivial...

An affine yield curve model is estimated on daily Swiss data 2002--2009. The market price of risk is modelled in terms of proxies for uncertainty, which are estimated from interest rate options. The estimated model generates innovations in the 3-month rate that are similar to external evidence...

The forecasting performance of the Livingston survey and traditional prediction models of stock prices is analysed. The survey forecasts look similar to those from a 'too large' prediction model: poor out-of-sample performance and too sensitive to recent and irrelevant information.

This essay describes the basics of the stock market analysis, gives a survey of simple methods of searching for predictive patterns in returns, as well as lists empirical evidence of such predictability.

Devaluation expectations for the Swedish krona are estimated for the period 1985 to 1992 using daily data for exchange rates and interest rates. The 90 percent confidence intervals for these estimates obtained by the 'drift-adjustment' method suggested by Giuseppe Bertola and Lars E. O. Svensson...

Cointegration analyses of macroeconomic time series are often not based on fully specified theoretical models. We use a theoretical model to scrutinize common procedures in applied cointegration analysis. Monte Carlo experiments show that 1) some tests of the cointegration vectors do not work...