The aim of this survey paper is to provide an account of some of the important developments in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model since its inception in a seminal paper by Engle (1982). This model takes account of many observed properties of asset prices, and...

This paper consider whether the wide acceptance of ARCH models may be at the expense of other nonlinear processes, such as bilinear models. The authors first pose a joint test for ARCH and bilinearity. A nonnested test is then suggested. The tests are then applied to three series. When GARCH...

In applied econometrics, the authors tend to tackle specification problems one at a time rather than considering them jointly. This has serious consequences for statistical inference. One example of this is considering autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity separately....

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters show a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time...

The presence of an underwriting profit cycle in property/liability insurance has become a stylized fact. Models of this "underwriting cycle" imply that the insurance market is governed by two regimes, as capacity is constrained or not. We apply the smooth transition regression model to insurance...