We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy...

This paper shows how recently developed regression-based methods for the decomposition of health inequality can be extended to incorporate heterogeneity in the responses of health to the explanatory variables. We illustrate our method with an application to the GHQ measure of psychological...

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is this consistent with nondecreasing human welfare? Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. We construct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links...

Considering a pure coordination game with a large number of equivalent equilibria, we argue, first, that a focal point that is itself not a Nash equilibrium and is Pareto dominated by all Nash equilibria, may attract the players' choices. Second, we argue that such a non-equilibrium focal point...

The aim of this paper is to simulate the effects of the Spanish 1999 tax reform on the married women’s labour behaviour and welfare in a partial equilibrium context. We estimate by maximum likelihood two models of labour supply which take into account of the characteristics of the budget...

The present paper proposes a model for the persistence of abnormal returns both at firm and industry levels, when longitudinal data for the profits of firms classiffied as industries are available. The model produces a two- way variance decomposition of abnormal returns: (a) at firm versus...

This paper analyses the application of hybrid risk adjustment versus either prospective or concurrent risk adjustment formulae in the context of funding pharmaceutical benefits for the population of an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia during years 2002 and 2003. We apply...

Within the spokes model of Chen and Riordan (2007) that allows for non-localized competition among arbitrary numbers of media outlets, we quantify the effect of concentration of ownership on quality and bias of media content. A main result shows that too few commercial outlets, or better, too...

In this paper we proose the infimum of the Arrow-Pratt index of absolute risk aversion as a measure of global risk aversion of a utility function. We then show that, for any given arbitrary pair of distributions, there exists a threshold level of global risk aversion such that all increasing...