We analyze data on stock index forecasts made by private investors. The implied returns calculated from these forecasts exhibit negative skewness and excess kurtosis. Past returns have a positive impact on the implied returns, consistent with investors expecting positive momentum. Females are...

Dufour and Engle (2000) have shown that the duration between subsequent trade events carries informational content with respect to the evolution of the fundamental asset value. Their analysis supports the notion that no trade means no information derived from Easley and O'Hara's (1992)...

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying...

Regulations in the pre-Sarbanes-Oxley era allowed corporate insiders considerable flexibility in strategically timing their trades and SEC filings, for example, by executing several trades and reporting them jointly after the last trade. We document that even these lax reporting requirements...

We analyze how the introduction of repurchases in 1998, and a major tax reform in 2001, affected the payout policy of German firms. To this end, we estimate Lintner (1956) partial adjustment models for both dividends and total payouts. We also analyze the implications for payout of changes in...

It is a stylized fact that trade indicator models (e.g. Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997) and Huang and Stoll (1997)) underestimate the bid-ask spread. We argue that this negative bias is due to an endogeneity problem which is caused by a negative correlation between the arrival of public...

We develop a model of the illiquidity transmission from spot to futures markets that formalizes the derivative hedge theory proposed by Cho and Engle (1999). The model shows that spot market illiquidity does not translate one-to-one to the futures market, but rather interacts with price risk,...

As of April 23, 2001, the limit order book for stocks listed on Euronext Paris became anonymous. We study the effect of this switch to anonymity on market liquidity and the informational content of the limit order book. Our empirical analysis is based on a model of limit order trading in which...

We analyze transactions by corporate insiders in Germany. We find that insider trades are associated with significant abnormal returns. Insider trades that occur prior to an earnings announcement have a larger impact on prices. This result provides a rationale for the UK regulation that...

In the German two-tiered system of corporate governance, it is common practice for chief executive officers (CEOs) to become the chairman of the supervisory board of the same company upon retirement. As members of the supervisory board, they are involved in setting the pay for their successors...