In this paper we present experimental research examining the ability of individuals to make good retrospective evaluations of payment sequences. Inspired by the evidence on systematic biases in the retrospective evaluation of affective episodes involving pain and pleasure we designed choice...

In this study, we analyze whether volatility forecasts (judgmental confidence intervals) are influenced by the specific elicitation mode (i.e. whether forecasters have to state future price levels or directly future returns as upper and lower bounds). We present questionnaire responses of about...

Empirical research has shown that a lower feedback frequency combined with a longer bind-ing period decreases myopia and thereby increases the willingness to invest into a risky asset. In an experimental study, we disentangle the intertwined manipulation of feedback frequency and binding period...

The question how an allocation decision is influenced by the investment horizon is of highest practical relevance, in particular in the context of retirement savings. Practitioners refer to the law of large numbers to argue that for a sufficiently long investment horizon it is almost certain to...

If individuals have to evaluate a portfolio (or sequence) of lotteries their judgment is influenced by the portfolio presentation mode. Experimental studies (Redelmeier and Tversky, 1992, Benartzi and Thaler, 1998) found significantly higher acceptance rates for a sequence of lotteries, if the...

In this study, we analyze whether individual expectations of stock returns are influenced by the specific elicitation mode (i.e. whether forecasters have to state future price levels or directly future returns). We thus examine whether there are framing effects in stock market forecasts. We...

In a recent QJE-article, Gneezy and Potters (1997) present experimental evidence for the impact of feedback frequency on individual risk taking behavior in repeated investment decisions. They find an increased willingness to invest into a risky asset if less frequent feedback about the outcome...

In the last years the importance of decision analysis for real world decision making tasks has been widely noticed and stressed in the corporate, public and even in the private sector. Decision analysis is considered to be a prescriptive approach to decision making which delivers applicable...

Empirical research documents that temporary trends in stock price movements exist. Moreover, riding a trend can be a profitable investment strategy. Thus, the ability to recognize trends in stock markets influences the quality of investment decisions. In this paper, we provide a thorough test of...

Overconfidence can manifest itself in various forms. For example, people think that their knowledge is more precise than it really is (miscalibration) and they believe that their abilities are above average (better than average effect). The questions whether judgment biases are related or...