This paper studies the term structure implications of a simple structural economy in which the representative agent displays ambiguity aversion, modeled by Multiple Priors Recursive Utility. Bond excess returns reflect a premium for ambiguity, which is observationally distinct from the risk...

Control problems with Recursive Multiple-Priors Utility (RMPU) are highly non-linear so that RMPU asset prices have been studied in very simple exchange economies only. We identify a continuous-time exchange equilibrium with Locally-Constrained-Entropy RMPU (LCE-RMPU) that is tractable even in...

We propose a new multivariate GARCH model with Dynamic Conditional Correlations that extends previous models by admitting multivariate thresholds in conditional volatilitiesand correlations. The model estimation is feasible in large dimensions and the positive definiteness of the conditional...

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generating reliable short-term historical yield curve scenarios and confidence intervals. The approach is based on a Functional Gradient Descent (FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and covariance matrix of a multivariate interest...

We apply perturbation theory to solve the optimal control problem of an investor with time-additive power utility over intermediate consumption and final wealth. Under general conditions we show existence of a power series representation for the prevailing optimal consumption and investment...

This paper focuses on the robust Effcient Method of Moments (EMM) estimation of a general parametric stationary process and proposes a broad framework for constructing robust EMM statistics in this context. This extends the application field of robust statistics to very general time series...

We study the problem of learning the probability distribution of a multinomial variable from an observed sequence of signals, starting in a condition of ignorance about this distribution. We show that not all signals are suited for producing non-vacuous inferences under prior ignorance. To...

Consider a relaxed multinomial setup, in which there may be mistakes in observing the outcomes of the processthis is often the case in real applications. What can we say about the next outcome if we start learning about the process in conditions of prior ignorance? To answer this question we...

The imprecise Beta model (IBM) of Bernard (1996) and Walley (1996) is the most popular model for learning about a binomial random variable under prior ignorance. Piatti et al. (2005) show that there is a fundamental issue with the interpretation of results produced by the IBM in applications....

We propose a multivariate nonparametric technique for generating reliable scenarios and confidence intervals for the term structure of interest rates from historical data. The approach is based on a functional gradient descent (FGD) estimation of the conditional mean vector and the conditional...