We investigate large changes, bursts, of the continuous stochastic signals, when the exponent of multiplicativity is higher than one. Earlier we have proposed a general nonlinear stochastic model which can be transformed into Bessel process with known first hitting (first passage) time...

On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and announced three bubbles on three different assets. In this latest release of 23 December 2009...

Stylized facts of empirical assets log-returns include the existence of semi heavy tailed distributions and a non-linear spectrum of Hurst exponents. Empirical data considered are daily prices from 10 large indices from 01/01/1990 to 12/31/2004. We propose a stylized model of price dynamics...

This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We...

Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market prices is modeled on a macro-level as the result of the...

Risk management and asset pricing benefit from simple functional descriptions of the distribution of real asset returns. Recently, several authors have proposed that asset returns in real stock markets are distributed according to a hyperbolic distribution. While asset returns are generated by...

Distributions of assets returns exhibit a slight skewness. In this note we show that our model of endogenous price formation [Reimann 2006] creates an asymmetric return distribution if the price dynamics are a process in which consecutive trading periods are dependent from each other in the...

Stylized facts of empirical assets log-returns $Z$ include the existence of (semi) heavy tailed distributions $f_Z(z)$ and a non-linear spectrum of Hurst exponents $\tau(\beta)$. Empirical data considered are daily prices of 10 large indices from 01/01/1990 to 12/31/2004. We propose a stylized...

Distributions of assets returns exhibit a slight skewness. In this note we show that our model of endogenous price formation \cite{Reimann2006} creates an asymmetric return distribution if the price dynamics are a process in which consecutive trading periods are dependent from each other in the...

The 1-shot ?-beauty contest is a non-equilibrium strategic game under bounded rationality conditions, while equilibrium is approached if the game is played iteratively sufficiently many times. Experimental data of the 1-shot setting of the 0-equilibrium game show a common pattern: The spectrum...