We investigate large changes, bursts, of the continuous stochastic signals, when the exponent of multiplicativity is higher than one. Earlier we have proposed a general nonlinear stochastic model which can be transformed into Bessel process with known first hitting (first passage) time...

The so-called “Guessing Game” or α-Beauty Contest serves as a paradigmatic conceptual framework for competitive price formation on financial markets beyond traditional equilibrium finance. It highlights features that are reasonable to consider when dealing with price formation on real...

We consider site percolation in a class of correlated random media derived from randomly bi-colored triangular lattices. Media are constructed due to specific state-dependent local constraints. Constraints destroy stochastic independence of elementary events and have specific impact on site...

We investigate behavior of the continuous stochastic signals above some threshold, bursts, when the exponent of multiplicativity is higher than one. Earlier we have proposed a general nonlinear stochastic model applicable for the modeling of absolute return and trading activity in financial...

On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and announced three bubbles on three different assets. In this latest release of 23 December 2009...

Stylized facts of empirical assets log-returns include the existence of semi heavy tailed distributions and a non-linear spectrum of Hurst exponents. Empirical data considered are daily prices from 10 large indices from 01/01/1990 to 12/31/2004. We propose a stylized model of price dynamics...

This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We...

Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market prices is modeled on a macro-level as the result of the...

Risk management and asset pricing benefit from simple functional descriptions of the distribution of real asset returns. Recently, several authors have proposed that asset returns in real stock markets are distributed according to a hyperbolic distribution. While asset returns are generated by...

Distributions of assets returns exhibit a slight skewness. In this note we show that our model of endogenous price formation [Reimann 2006] creates an asymmetric return distribution if the price dynamics are a process in which consecutive trading periods are dependent from each other in the...