Stress testing has become a crucial point on the Basel II agenda, mainly as Pillar I estimatesdo not explicitly take portfolio concentration into account. We start from the credit portfolioof the German pension insurer being a cross-sectional representation of the German economyand subsequently...

Rating downgrades are known to make subsequent downgrades more likely. We analyze theimpact of this ‘downward momentum’ on credit portfolio risk. Using S&P ratings from 1996to 2005, we estimate a transition matrix that is insensitive to and a second matrix that is sensitiveto previous...

In the work of the Basel Committee there has been a tradition ofdistinguishing market from credit risk and to treat both categories independentlyin the calculation of risk capital. In practice positionsin a portfolio depend simultaneously on both market and credit riskfactors. In this case, an...

In this study we develop and demonstrate a powerful and flexible forward-looking portfoliosimulation methodology for assessing the correlated impacts of market risk, and privatesector, sovereign and inter-bank default risk on both individual banks (i.e. 28 of the largestBrazilian banks) and...

We study the risk of holding credit default swaps (CDS) in the trading book. In particular, wecompare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respectivefirm’s equity. Our sample consists of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms overthe period...

In this paper we investigate the interaction between a credit portfolio and another risktype, which can be thought of as market risk. Combining Merton-like factor models forcredit risk with linear factor models for market risk, we analytically calculate their interriskcorrelation and show how...

We analyze collateralized loan obligation (CLO) transactions by European banks(1997 - 2004), trying to identify firm-specific and macroeconomic factors influencing aninstitution’s securitization decision. CLO issuance seems to be an appropriate fundingtool for large banks with high risk and...

In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk – as revealed by tranche spreadsof a popular credit default swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities ofdefault (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. Thetime profile and overall level...

This is study empirically examine the impact of market conditions on credit spreads asmotivated by recently developed structural credit risk models. Using credit default swap(CDS) spreads, we find that, in the time series, average credit spreads are decreasing inGDP growth rate, but increasing...

By using short-term direct finance firms of the highest credit quality exposethemselves to rollover risk in the public debt markets. Firms insure themselvesagainst this risk by securing backup lines of credit from banks that they mayuse should market liquidity dry up. In a first step, this paper...