[...]This article investigates whether changes in the termpremium tend to distort the term spread’s recession signals.3We begin by decomposing the term spread into an expectationscomponent and a term premium component, based on the Kimand Wright (2005) term premium estimates. Next, we...

[...]This article examines the U.S. Treasury’s decision tointroduce a new financial instrument—Treasury bills—in1929. We show that Treasury officials were willing to committhe resources required to introduce the new security in orderto mitigate several flaws in the structure of Treasury...

[...]This article examines why, during the 1970s, Treasuryofficials changed the framework within which they made their debt management decisions. We show that the Treasuryfinanced an unusually rapid expansion of the deficit in 1975with a flurry of tactical offerings. The offerings disrupted...

[...]This article examines the origins and early development ofthe Federal Reserve’s book-entry system—the system mostclosely associated with the elimination of definitive, orcertificated, Treasury securities. We suggest that the Fed’ssystem was the product of three important factors: the...