This article examines the rationality of forecasts of 11 macroeconomic variables. Among the nonstationary series, only surveys of housing starts, the unemployment rate, and the trade balance are rational forecasts. Among the stationary series, survey forecasts for only consumer prices and...

It has been suggested that prior studies that have puzzlingly found forward rates to be inefficient and biased forecasts of future spot rates may be limited by inadequate statistical methodologies. Using an improved statistical methodology that accounts for both non-stationarity and...

An important puzzle in international finance is the failure of the forward exchange rate to be a rational forecast of the future spot rate. It has often been suggested that this puzzle may be resolved by using better statistical procedures that correct for both non-stationarity and nonnormality...

This article examines the rationality of forecasts of 11 macroeconomic variables. Among the nonstationary series, only surveys of housing starts, the unemployment rate, and the trade balance are rational forecasts. Among the stationary series, survey forecasts for only consumer prices and...