We evaluate explanations for why Germany grew so quickly in the 1950s. The recent literature has emphasized convergence, structural change and institutional shake-up while minimizing the importance of the post-war shock. We show that this shock and its consequences were more important than...

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from diffusionindices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economicactivity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which isreversed after...

Recent research on international productivity comparisons has focused on the discrepancies between benchmark comparisons and time series extrapolations from other benchmarks. For a 1907 benchmark, Stephen Broadberry and Carsten Burhop (2007) find German manufacturing to be only slightly ahead of...

The prominent role of monetary policy in the U.S. interwardepression has been conventional wisdom since Friedman andSchwartz [1963]. This paper presents evidence on both thesurprise and the systematic components of monetary policybetween 1929 and 1933. Doubts surrounding GDP estimates forthe...