We develop a new goodness-of-fit test for validating the performance of probability forecasts. Our test statistic is particularly powerful under sparseness and dependence in the observed data. To build our test statistic, we start from a formal definition of calibrated forecasts, which we...

The validation of probability calibration is an inherently difficult task. We develop a testing procedure for credit-scoring models. The models comprise two components to check whether the ex-ante probabilities support the ex-post frequencies. The first component tests the level of the...

In this paper, we study the economic benets from using credit scoring models. We contribute to the literature by relating the discriminatory power of a credit scoring model to the optimal credit decision. Given the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of the credit scoring model, we...

Corporate credit ratings remove the information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers to find an equilibrium price. Structured finance ratings, however, are informationally insufficient because the systematic risk of equally rated assets can vary substantially. As I demonstrate in a Monte...