This paper presents a monopolistic competition model of trade and multinational production that incorporates asymmetric trade barriers and international differences in production costs. The model predicts the functional form for the dependence of U.S. exports and multinational production on...

In this paper we present a monopolistic competition model that incorporates asymmetric trade barriers and international differences in production costs. The model implies a highly non-linear bilateral trade equation. Estimation of this equation yields parameters for the elasticity of...

Summary This study provides micro-level evidence on the close link between foreign participation and wage inequality. We investigate the wage premium and the wage spillover effect of foreign-invested enterprises in the Chinese manufacturing sector. The results indicate a significant foreign...

Quantifying the probability of U.S. recessions has become increasingly important since August 2007. In a data-rich environment, this paper is the first to apply a Probit model to common factors extracted from a large set of explanatory variables to model and forecast recession probability. The...

In this paper monthly data are used over the period 1960:7 to 1995:12 to examine the determinants of term premia implicit in the Canadian T-bill term structure of interest rates. In sharp contrast to U.S. evidence, the conditional variances of Canadian macroeconomic variables are found to be...

The difficulty of incorporating general equilibrium price effects into econometric estimating equations has deterred most researchers from econometrically estimating the welfare gains from trade liberalization. Using a paired-down CES monopolistic competition example, we show that this...

Yield spreads have been repeatedly used in the literature as the top candidates in predicting future recessions. In this paper, we show that existing model specifications are good but fall short of the performance of more complete models. Applying a probit stepwise regression procedure to a...

This paper uses an enterprise-population-level dataset to investigate the link between globalization and gender inequality in the Chinese labor market. We find that foreign and exporting firms employ more female workers than domestic nonexporters. Foreign participation and export orientation...

Recent theoretical analysis suggests that a reduction in the cost of exporting increases the degree of assortative matching between workers and firms in export-oriented industries. Changes that reduce the cost of imports have an ambiguous impact on matching. We combine detailed Swedish matched...