In a quantitative model with uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the output can be summarized by a risk measure. We propose a sensitivity analysis method based on derivatives of the output risk measure, in the direction of model inputs. This produces a global sensitivity measure, explicitly...

In risk analysis, sensitivity measures quantify the extent to which the probability distribution of a model output is affected by changes (stresses) in individual random input factors. For input factors that are statistically dependent, we argue that a stress on one input should also precipitate...

We introduce an approach to sensitivity analysis of quantitative risk models, for the purpose of identifying the most influential inputs. The proposed approach relies on a change of measure derived by minimising the $\chi^2$-divergence, subject to a constraint (`stress') on the expectation of a...