We compare the performance of a subset of CBO's economic forecasts against that of an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model. We evaluate forecasts of real economic indicators as well as budget-related nominal statistics. We find that under most specifications, the VAR performs...

This paper surveys the empirical and theoretical literature on macroeconomic production functions and assesses whether the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) or the Cobb-Douglas specification is more appropriate for use in the CBO’s macroeconomic forecasts. The Cobb-Douglas’s major...

This paper is intended to be pedagogical rather than a presentation of original research. We describe a simple dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with capital utilization, capital adjustment costs, and a simple Cobb-Douglas technology to illustrate how DSGE models can be used...