The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the...

This paper addresses the economics of forest fuel thinning programs on federal lands in the U.S. West, and presents a model of regional timber and product market impacts. The issue of economics is vital to the debate about fire management, and this paper presents market implications of two...

We describe a two-stage model of global log and chip markets that evaluates the spatial and temporal economic effects of government-subsidized fire-related mechanical fuel treatment programs in the U.S. West and South. The first stage is a goal program that allocates subsidies according to fire...

Current estimators of variance for the k nearest neighbours (kNN) technique are designed for estimates of population totals. Their efficiency in small-area estimation problems can be poor. In this study, we propose a modified balanced repeated replication estimator of variance (BRR) of a kNN...

A diameter increment model is developed and evaluated for individual trees of ponderosa pine throughout the species range in the United States using a multilevel linear mixed model. Stochastic variability is broken down among period, locale, plot, tree and within-tree components. Covariates...

Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are useful tools for modeling ecological predictions and aiding resource-management decision-making. We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising BBNs. Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized...

The extreme cost of fighting wildland fires has brought fire suppression expenditures to the forefront of budgetary and policy debate in the United States. Inasmuch as large fires are responsible for the bulk of fire suppression expenditures, understanding fire characteristics that influence...