It is well-known that there is a large degree of uncertainty around Rogoff's (1996) consensus half-life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, we develop a system method that combines the Taylor rule and a standard exchange rate model to estimate half-lives. Further, we...

A data-driven method for frequentist model averaging weight choice is developed for general likelihood models. We propose to estimate the weights which minimize an estimator of the mean squared error of a weighted estimator in a local misspecification framework. We find that in general there is...

This paper considers forecast combination with factor-augmented regression. In this framework, a large number of forecasting models are available, varying by the choice of factors and the number of lags. We investigate forecast combination using weights that minimize the Mallows and the...