The unit root revolution in time series modeling has created substantial interest in non-stationarity and its implications for empirical modeling. Beyond the original interest in trend vs.di¤erence non-stationarity, there has been renewed interest in testing and modeling structuralbreaks. The...

Most of empirical modeling involves the use of Ordinary Least Squares regression where the residuals are assumed normal, independent, and identically distributed. In finite samples, these assumptions becomes critical for accurate estimations, however, in macroeconomics in particular, these...

We investigate the implications of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) for interstate confl ict. We set up a two-stage game with three competing importers, where fi rst, two of the countries decide on whether to initiate war against each other, and subsequently, all three countries select their...

Econometric modeling based on the Student’s t distribution introduces an additional parameter — the degree of freedom. In this paper we use a simulation study to investigate the ability of (i) the GARCH-t model (Bollerslev, 1987) to estimate the true degree of freedom parameter and (ii) the...

Microcredit programs are of great interest to economists and policymakers because of their potential for reducing poverty, particularly among women. The first chapter mainly investigates the effectiveness aspect of microcredit programs. Using program evaluation methods, we find significant...