Prediction markets are a promising approach forpredicting uncertain future events and developments.These markets will work well if they are efficient and inefficient markets, one does not expect arbitrageopportunities to be persistent. This paper thereforestudies whether pure arbitrage...

Prediction markets have proven high forecasting performance in many areas such as politics, sportsand business-related fields compared to traditional instruments such as polls or expert opinions. Theadvantage of real-money prediction markets is to provide participants with a clear incentive to...

The results of recent studies on prediction markets are encouraging. Prior experience demonstrates that markets with different incentive schemes predicted uncertain future events at a remarkable accuracy. In this paper, we study the impact of different monetary incentives on prediction accuracy...

The results of recent studies on prediction markets are encouraging. Prior experience demonstrates that markets with different incentive schemes predicted uncertain future events at a remarkable accuracy. In this paper, we study the impact of different monetary incentives on the prediction...