The statistical variance of total project cost is usually estimated by means of Monte Carlo simulation on the assumption that exact analytic approaches are too difficult. This paper tests that assumption and shows that, contrary to expectations, the analytic solution is relatively...

This paper describes an empirical study aimed at ranking prequalification criteria on the basis of perceived total benefit-cost to stakeholders. A postal questionnaire was distributed to 100 client and contractor organizations in Australia in 1997. 48 responses were analyzed for scores on 38...

Contractor prequalification involves the establishment of a standard for measuring and assessing the capabilities of potential tenderers. The required standard is based on a set of PreQualification Criteria (PQC) that is intended to reflect the objectives of the client and the requirements of...

One of the factors affecting the success or otherwise of the procurement process is the quality of its financial management. In many cases, particularly in the early stages of a project, this is dependent on the accuracy of forecasts of future costs. For risk management purposes, what is most...

A Multivariate Discriminant Analysis is described, aimed at predicting the direction of changes in the Hong Kong tender price index by utilising the patterns of change in eight leading economic indicators. Two discriminant functions are derived which distinguish between ‘upward’,...

Clients need to be informed in advance of their likely future financial commitments and cost implications as the design evolves. This requires the estimation of building cost based on historic cost data that is updated by a forecasted Tender Price Index (TPI), with the reliability of the...

Non-linearity, uncertainty and subjectivity are the three predominant characteristics of contractors prequalification which lead to the process being more of an art than a scientific evaluation. A fuzzy neural network (FNN) model, amalgamating both the fuzzy set and neural network theories, has...

Clients need to be informed in advance of their likely future financial commitments and cost implications as the design evolves. This requires the estimation of building cost based on historic cost data that is updated by a forecasted Tender Price Index (TPI), with the reliability of the...

A great body of knowledge exists on the theory of auctions and competitive bidding that is of potential relevance to construction contract tendering. Most of this, however, contains assumptions – such as perfect information – that are unlikely to be tenable in practice. The aim, therefore,...