When considering the possibility of a bioterrorist attack on the United States food system it is generally agreed that U.S. agriculture is vulnerable to such an attack. In addition to the importance of being able to predict the likelihood of such an event and thereby attempt to prevent it, it is...

Generic income stabilization schemes, which resemble an actual NISA policy adopted recently in Canada, encourage farmers to set aside funds in high income year for use in low income years through a formal procedure. Their economic effects are investigated using the prudent farm household model....

In this paper we develop a theoretical model of input supply by agricultural producers who purchase crop insurance and so who may engage in moral hazard. We show, through simulations, that a combination of partial insurance coverage combined with a minimum standard for input use may reduce...

This paper argues that under a commercial export milk program the market value of quota will be determined by the spread between the domestic market price and the export price rather than the conventional wisdom that it is determined by the spread between the domestic milk price and the marginal...

This paper investigates the use of rainfall insurance to manage agricultural production risks. A number of rainfall insurance products are presented along with a raitonal model which identifies the economics of rainfall. The use of rainfall insurance will increase in future years as capital...

The main motivation for this paper is the recognition of the fact that asymmetric information is the form of moral hazard and adverse selection results in sizeable efficiency losses. These costs are passed back to producers in the form of excessively high premium rates and also passed back to...

Normal, gamma and beta distributions are applied to 609 crop yield histories of Ontario farmers to determine which, if any, best describe crop yields. In addition, a distribution free non-parametric kernel estimator was applied to the same data to determine its efficiency in premium estimation...

This paper investigates whether the assumption of Brownian motion often used to describe commodity price movements is satisfied. Using historical data from 17 commodity futures contracts specific tests of fractional and ordinary Brownian motion are conducted. The analyses are conducted under the...

This paper proposes that the common finding that land prices are systematically higher than their fundamental value as measured by the present value of future cash might be due to real options arising from uncertainty in cash flows. The paper posits a model in which the seller has a real option...

This paper provides an understanding of how the export credit worthiness of an importing country affects export sales of agricultural and other manufactured products and how export credit guarantees or insurance can mitigate risks of non-payment. A theoretical model is developed. It shows how...