This document is the technical annex to the full paper "The Prophecies of the Naysayers - Assessing the Vision of the Protectionists in the U.S.-Canada Debate on Agricultural Reciprocity, 1846-1854" which is available separately.

Debates over proposals to liberalise international trade are often heated and acrimonious. They are often argued, in part, on the basis of projections of market conditions after the proposed liberalisation. These argument are often important in influencing trade policy decisions, yet their...