This article suggests two methods for deriving a statistical verdict from a null finding, allowing economists to more confidently conclude when "not significant" can in fact be interpreted as "no substantive effect." The proposed methodology can be extended to a variety of empirical contexts...

The gravity model is used extensively to investigate the trade flow effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). A notable feature common to previous research is the use of aggregate trade data. These studies typically report conflicting, and even negative results of the effect of RTAs on...