I propose an econometric model that improves upon existing methods of estimating the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) by using information contained in the trend of productivity growth. My approach enhances the recently proposed model of Staiger, Stock and Watson (1997) in several respects....

We argue that the US personal saving rate's long stability (1960s-1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s-2007), and recent substantial rise (2008-2011) can be interpreted using a parsimonious buffer stock model of consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints....

I propose an econometric model that improves upon existing methods of estimating the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) by using information contained in the trend of productivity growth. My approach enhances the recently proposed model of Staiger, Stock and Watson (1997) in several respects....

In this paper we investigate the effects of EU enlargement on price convergence. The internal market is expected to boost integration and increase efficiency and welfare through a convergence of prices in product markets. Two principal drivers are crucial to explain price developments. On the...

Im Euroraum und insbesondere in Deutschland hat sich die Konjunktur lange Zeit nur schwach entwickelt. Ein wesentlicher Grund dafür war nur eine verhaltene Dynamik der Binnennachfrage und insbesondere des Konsums. Im Durchschnitt unterschiedlicher Länder ist ein deutlicher Einfluss der...

We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate's long stability (1960s-1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s-2007), and recent substantial rise (2008-2011) can be interpreted using a parsimonious 'buffer stock' model of consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit...

Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...

Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland hellt sich zwar auf, der Aufschwung gewinnt aber nicht hinreichend an Breite. Die mangelnde Konsumbereitschaft der privaten Haushalte trübt noch die Stimmung. Trotz leichter Zuwächse kann von einer für einen Aufschwung typischen Erholung der...