We estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression for the U.K. with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatilities. We use it to characterize posterior densities for several objects that are useful for designing and evaluating monetary policy, including local approximations to the mean,...

Most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state, but most central banks target an inflation rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound...

This paper analyzes the dynamics of prices and wages using a limited information approach to estimation. I consider a two-equation model for the determination of prices and wages derived from an optimization-based dynamic model, where both goods and labor markets are monopolistically...

The central piece of the New Keynesian Phillips curve is a model of price setting with nominal rigidities that implies that the dynamics of inflation is well explained by the evolution of real marginal costs. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether this model of inflation dynamics has...

Most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state, but most central banks target inflation at a rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound...

Highly volatile transition dynamics can emerge when a central bank disinflates while operating without full transparency. In our model, a central bank commits to a Taylor rule whose form is known but whose coefficient are not. Private agents learn about policy parameters via Bayesian updating....