Showing 1 - 10 of 11
This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from diffusionindices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economicactivity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which isreversed after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870499
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extendingit in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860485
We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germanys pre WorldWar I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time seriesdata than historical national accounting. To investigate industrializationwe propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861003
We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality usingBayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality ofmortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changesfor all individual age classes....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005862544
The prominent role of monetary policy in the U.S. interwardepression has been conventional wisdom since Friedman andSchwartz [1963]. This paper presents evidence on both thesurprise and the systematic components of monetary policybetween 1929 and 1933. Doubts surrounding GDP estimates forthe...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870404
The Great War of 1914-18 constituted a major rupture for the economies of Europe in several respects. It marked the end of almost a century of uninterrupted economic growth. It ended a long period of near-universal currency stability, and set in motion a painful process of de-globalisation. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870493
We evaluate explanations for why Germany grew so quickly in the 1950s. The recent literature has emphasized convergence, structural change and institutional shake-up while minimizing the importance of the post-war shock. We show that this shock and its consequences were more important than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870496
Recent research on international productivity comparisons has focused on the discrepancies between benchmark comparisons and time series extrapolations from other benchmarks. For a 1907 benchmark, Stephen Broadberry and Carsten Burhop (2007) find German manufacturing to be only slightly ahead of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870508
Most treatments of the Great Depression have focused on its onset and its aftermath. In contrast, we take a unified view of the interwar period. We look at the slide into and the emergence from the 1920-21 recession and the roaring 1920s boom, as well as the slide into the Great Depression after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861193
This paper examines the comovement of the stock market and of real activity inGermany before World War I under the efficient market hypothesis. We employ multivariate spectral analysis to compare rivaling national product estimates to stock market behavior in the frequency domain. Close...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861849