This paper offers a solution to the puzzle that economic activity recovers after a financial crisis without a rebound in credit. These credit-less recoveries, known as "Phoenix Miracles", question the importance of credit. We argue that these recoveries appear credit-less because GDP is compared...

Despite considerable differences, there were also many similarities in economic performance between Latvia and Greece before their respective adjustment crises. After the immediate crisis, however, economic activity rebounded sharply in Latvia but continued to contract in Greece. This paper...

Despite considerable differences, there were also many similarities in economic performance between Latvia and Greece before their respective adjustment crises. After the immediate crisis, however, economic activity rebounded sharply in Latvia but continued to contract in Greece. This paper...

It has become almost a stylized fact that after financial crises, economic activity recovers without a rebound in credit. We investigate the relationship between credit and economic activity over the business cycle. In a simple model we show that a rebound in the flow of credit has closer...

Two of the four macroeconomic adjustment programmes, Portugal and Ireland's, can be considered a success in the sense that the initial expectations in terms of adjustment, both fiscal and external, were broadly fulfilled. A rebound based on exports has taken hold in these two countries, but a...

We consider the real life implementation of some key elements of the new economic governance framework for the euro area. The main findings are the following. The Country Specific Recommendations issued in the context of the European Semester seem to be too little ‘specific’ to constrain...

This report considers four short-term, alternative scenarios for the eurozone and analyses their possible implications for global economic trends and the gold market. Overall, the main findings suggest that in the near future, motives other than inflation hedging will be the main drivers of gold...