This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrelation...

The future development of population size and structure is of importance since planning in many areas of politics and business is conducted based on expectations about the future makeup of the population. Countries with both decreasing mortality and low fertility rates, which is the case for...

Internationale Migration ist eines der gesellschaftlich am kontroversesten diskutierten Themen. Kritiker einer offenen Migrationspolitik sehen hohe Immigrationszahlen als großes Risiko für die Sicherheit und warnen vor möglichen Verdrängungseffekten am Arbeitsmarkt, während die Befürworter...

Internationale Migration ist eines der gesellschaftlich am kontroversesten diskutierten Themen. Kritiker einer offenen Migrationspolitik sehen hohe Immigrationszahlen als großes Risiko für die Sicherheit und warnen vor möglichen Verdrängungseffekten am Arbeitsmarkt, während die Befürworter...

The future development of population size and structure is of importance since planning in many areas of politics and business is conducted based on expectations about the future makeup of the population. Countries with both decreasing mortality and low fertility rates, which is the case for...

Since 2013, more than two million refugees have arrived in Germany and have been allocated across federal states and districts according to legal policies. A steadily increasing number of refugees is now entering the German labor market, albeit under varying economic and demographic contexts....

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of our lives. Among other outcomes, the academic literature and popular media both discuss the potential effects of the pandemic on fertility. As fertility is an important determinant of population development and population forecasts are important...

Demographic change is one of the greatest challenges faced by Germany as well as a large part of Europe today. One of the main drivers of this change is the low fertility level, often referred to as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), since the early 1970s. Therefore, on the one hand, while the...

Good forecasts for future fertility developments are of high importance in political planning, especially regarding measures in social insurance. Fertility is the main driver of demographic change, since small fertility rates lead to a shrinking population and together with decreasing mortality...