Forecasting business-cycle turning points under real-time conditions One of the greatest challenges in business cycle research is the timely and reliable identification of cyclical turning points.The data availability in real time constitutes a fundamental problem:First there is a publication...

On the basis of current Eurostat data, which facilitate a largely consistent international comparison of labour costs per hour worked, this study presents an in-depth analysis of the level and evolution of Austrian labour costs compared to those of other European countries. In relation to other...

Using monthly post-1995 Japanese data we propose a new sign-restriction based approach to identify monetary policy shocks when the economy is at the zero-lower bound (ZLB). The identifying restrictions are thoroughly grounded in liquidity trap theory. Our results show that a quantitative easing...

The Spanish economy is currently plagued by a deep recession with very high unemployment. We ask how much of the unemployment increase in Spain can be traced back to the debt deleveraging needs of Spanish households. We use provincial household debt and sectoral unemployment data and follow Mian...

The article reviews the debate on government spending multiplier and provides a detailed discussion of the underlying economic mechanisms, focusing on the role of the state of the business cycle and the monetary policy reaction. Special emphasis is on the effects of fiscal policy within a...

We propose a novel method to correct break-even inflation rates derived from index-linked bonds for liquidity and inflation risk premia without resorting to survey based measures. In a state-space framework the difference between break-even inflation rates and unobserved true inflation...

Using post-1995 Japanese data we propose a new sign restriction SVAR approach to identify monetary policy shocks when the economy is at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB). The identifying restrictions are based on predictions of Eggertsson’s (2010) New Keynesian DSGE models when the economy is stuck...

This IMK Study is a documentation of the IMK's macro-econometric model of the German economy. Currently the model includes 48 behavioural equations, which are usually specified as error-correction equations, and 61 definitions. The model is based on seasonally unadjusted quarterly national...

The study develops a budget consolidation strategy for Austria that does not endanger the fragile recovery while at the same time promoting distrbutional justice. As a first step a literature review on the macroeconomic effects of discreationary fiscal policy is given. As a second step two...