In this paper, I estimate a structural panel vector autoregression to study the consequences of changes in U.S. state government fiscal policies for local economic activity in the short-term. My main result is that the state-level spending multiplier is relatively small and the tax multiplier...

This paper studies regional output asymmetries following U.S. federal tax shocks. We estimate a vector autoregressive model for each U.S. state, utilizing the exogenous tax shock series recently proposed by Romer and Romer (2010) and find considerable variations: estimated output multipliers lie...

This paper studies the short-run macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in Germany using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. Identification of the tax shock follows the narrative approach recently proposed by Romer and Romer (2010). Results indicate a moderate, but statistically...

This paper presents a historical account of legislated tax changes in the Federal Republic of Germany from 1964 to 2010, thus establishing a database appropriate for the macroeconometric analysis of the fiscal policy transmission mechanism. Ninety-five quantitatively important pieces of tax...

Sentiment from over 3.6 million Reuters news articles is tested in a vector autoregression model framework on its ability to forecast returns of the Dow Jones Industrials stock index. We show that Reuters sentiment can explain and predict changes in stock returns better than macroeconomic...

We show that sentiment from newspaper articles can explain and predict movements in the term structure of US government bonds. This effect is stronger at the short end of the curve, coinciding with greater volatility and investors' need to continually reassess the Fed's reaction function. Facing...