The level of the (log of) the exchange rate seems to have strong forecasting power for dollar exchange rates against major currencies post-2000 at medium- to long-run horizons of 12-, 36- and 60-months. We find that this is true using conventional asymptotic statistics correcting for serial...

Standard models of exchange rates, based on macroeconomic variables such as prices, interest rates, output, etc., are thought by many researchers to have failed empirically. We present evidence to the contrary. First, we emphasize the point that "beating a random walk" in forecasting is too...

This paper surveys recent theoretical and empirical contributions on foreign exchange rate determination. The paper first considers monetary models under uncovered interest parity and rational expectations. Then the paper considers deviations from UIP/rational expectations: foreign exchange risk...

This chapter surveys recent theoretical and empirical contributions on foreign exchange rate determination. The chapter first examines monetary models under uncovered interest parity and rational expectations, and then considers deviations from UIP/rational expectations: foreign exchange risk...