This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time...

Prolonged period of industrial business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute and representative range of indicators permit to resolve the first task – analyze the situation in the sector in 2018 – determine the place for the year 2018 in all the 27 years since the IET launched and...

Downward trend in demand curbs growth of industrial output. At the same time, plans and projections of enterprises still remain optimistic. In the context of personnel shortage businesses put out considerable efforts aimed at keeping their workers and plan to increase employment

The second half of 2017 was a tough period for Russian enterprises; in particular, in the middle of the year industrial enterprises saw the demand for their products expand at slower pace. In November, however, a representative indicator set of Gaidar Institute's business survey statistics...

Prolonged period of industrial business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute and representative range of indicators permit to resolve the first task – analyze the situation in the sector in 2019 – determine the place for the year 2019 in all the 28 years' history of our monitoring the...

2018 was a tough year for the Russian industry, according to surveys. On the one hand, there were no visible crisis-related changes, but on the other hand, positive trends of 2017 slowed in 2018, affecting industrial enterprises' assessments of the situation in the industry. The pace of recovery...

In Q2 2018, the Russian industrial sector managed to recover to a normal state of operation from the failed start early this year. The percentage of enterprises assessing their state as “normal standing” neared an all-time high by mid-2018 (77% compared to 78% in H2 2017)

This paper has been prepared on the results of business surveys of industrial enterprises which have been conducted by the Gaidar Institute using a European harmonized method in monthly cycles since September 1992, covering the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The panel size is around...

In Q2 2018, the situation in Russian industry did not undergo any significant changes. Most of Russian enterprises continued to register persistently low demand, which enabled them to confidently control their finished product stocks and maintain their output growth rate at minimum. In Q2 2018,...

Some new features have been added to Russia's import substitution policy. Minpromtorg (Russia's Ministry of Industry and Trade) in April compiled a comprehensive list of foreign-made machinery, equipment and materials which state-owned companies will not be permitted (from 1st of July) to...