We present an econometric method for estimating the parameters of a diffusion model from discretely sampled data. The estimator is transparent, adaptive, and inherits the asymptotic properties of the generally unattainable maximum likelihood estimator. We use this method to estimate a new...

We investigate the Expectations Hypotheses of the term structure of interest rates and of the foreign exchange market using vector autoregressive methods for the U.S. dollar, Deutsche mark, and British pound interest rates and exchange rates. In addition to standard Wald tests, we formulate...

This paper is a recap of G3 exchange rate relationships since the collapse of Bretton Woods and an analysis of recent proposals for changing the way the G3 countries currently conduct exchange rate policy. We seek to understand these proposals in the context of the status quo monetary policies...

This paper uses a rich new data set of option prices on the dollar-mark, dollar-yen, and key EMS cross-rates to extract the entire risk-neutral probability density function (pdf) over horizons of one and three months. We compare three alternative smoothing methods---cubic splines, an implied...

In this paper we develop and test two hypotheses about purchasing power parity (PPP) derived from the pricing behavior of profit- maximizing, exporting firms. The first is that changes in the price of traded goods relative to domestic substitutes, due to partial pass- through of exchange rates,...

We present theory and evidence that challenges the view that forward premia contain little information regarding subsequent spot rate movements. Using weekly dollar-mark and dollar sterling data, we find that spot and forward exchange rates together are well represented by a vector error...

The paper characterizes predictable components in excess rates of returns on major equity and foreign exchange markets using lagged excess returns, dividend yields, and forward premiums as instruments. Vector autoregressive techniques demonstrate one-step-ahead predictability and provide implied...

Two propositions are common in the international finance literature: (1) the real exchange rate is a random walk, (2) the real exchange rate time series properties essentially depend on the nominal exchange rate regime. The first proposition has been used in support of the claim that PPP cannot...

This paper investigates empirically the differences in time?series behavior of key economic aggregates under alternative exchange rate systems. We use a postwar sample of 49 countries to compare the behavior of output. consumption, trade flows, government consumption spending, and real exchange...