This paper investigates how FOMC members revise their forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. Based on a new data set of forecasts from individual FOMC members between 1992 and 2000 it is shown that FOMC members intentionally overrevise their forecasts at the first revision and underrevise at...

The domestic landscape / Michael J. Boskin -- In brief : spending / George P. Shultz -- Entitlements and the budget / John F. Cogan -- A blueprint for tax reform / Michael J. Boskin -- Transformational health care reform / Scott W. Atlas -- Reforming regulation / Michael J. Boskin -- National...

This paper provides estimates of the government spending multiplier over the monetary policy cycle. We identify government spending shocks as forecast errors of the growth rate of government spending from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and from the Greenbook record. The state of...