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Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty
Gambetti, Luca; Tsoukalas, John D.; Korobilis, Dimitris; … - 2023
When agents’ information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348100
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The Distribution of Ambiguity Attitudes
Gaudecker, Hans-Martin von; Wogrolly, Axel; Zimpelmann, … - 2022
This paper analyzes the stability and distribution of ambiguity attitudes using a broad population sample. Using high-powered incentives, we collected six waves of data on ambiguity attitudes about financial markets—our main application—and climate change. Estimating a structural stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241994
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Loss Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function
Rablen, Matthew D. - 2023
extend to distinct PWFs in the gain and loss domains, as under prospect theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350127
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Approximate Expected Utility Rationalization
Echenique, Federico - 2019
deviation (in beliefs, utility, or perceived prices) is within e of expected utility theory. The number e can then be used as a … distance to the theory. We apply our methodology to three recent large-scale experiments. Many subjects in those experiments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892237
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Risk Matters : Breaking Certainty Equivalence
Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos - 2020
In this paper we use the property that certainty equivalence, as implied by a first-order approximation to the solution of stochastic discrete-time models, breaks in its equivalent continuous-time version. We study the extent to which a first-order approximated solution built by perturbation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834991
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Cognitive Uncertainty
Enke, Benjamin - 2019
This paper introduces a formal definition and an experimental measurement of the concept of cognitive uncertainty: people's subjective uncertainty about what the optimal action is. This concept allows us to bring together and partially explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857912
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Asymmetries in Risk Premia, Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Business Cycles
Görtz, Christoph - 2019
A large literature suggests that the expected equity risk premium is countercyclical. Using a variety of different measures for this risk premium, we document that it also exhibits growth asymmetry, i.e. the risk premium rises sharply in recessions and declines much more gradually during the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858207
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Investment Responses to Tax Policy Under Uncertainty
Guceri, Irem - 2019
How does economic uncertainty affect the impact of tax policy? We exploit a natural experiment in which two very similar investment subsidies were implemented in the same country, two years apart: once during a period of economic stability, and once during a period of very high uncertainty....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859606
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A Comparison of Regret Theory and Salience Theory for Decisions under Risk
Herweg, Fabian - 2020
Two non-transitive theories to model decision making under risk are regret theory (Loomes and Sugden, 1982, 1987) and … salience theory (Bordalo, Gennaioli, and Shleifer, 2012). While the psychological underpinning of these two approaches is … of choice behavior. We investigate the overlap between these theories and show that original regret theory (Loomes and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850081
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Reverse Bayesianism : Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events
Becker, Christoph K.; Melkonyan, Tigran; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2021
Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484