The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used...

Business cycle dynamic in Germany has still been high at the beginning of this year. However in due course of 2008 adverse external impact especially from the US will make themselves being felt. Growth will slow down to 1.4 % in 2009. It will be driven mainly by consumption. Unemployment will go...