We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing …, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These differences are mainly explained …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both …