Our purpose is to show how large difference of beliefs induced by fear of crashesis amenable to large and persistent price responses to contemporaneous shocks. Weconstruct a pure exchange economy populated by two agents who estimate strictlydifferent models regarding the fundamental. In...

We provide a new method to derive the state price density per unit probabilitybased on option prices and GARCH model. We derive the risk neutraldistribution using the result in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) and thehistorical density adapting the GARCH model of Barone-Adesi, Engle, andMancini...

We use a user-cost model to study how dispersed information among housing marketparticipants a¤ects the equilibrium house price. In the model, agents are disparatelyinformed about local economic conditions, consume housing services, and speculate onprice changes. Information dispersion leads...

[...]This article adds to the literature by estimating andevaluating a comprehensive set of liquidity measures for theU.S. Treasury securities market. High-frequency data from theinterdealer market allow for an analysis of trading volume,trading frequency, bid-ask spreads, quote sizes, trade...

[...]In this article, we analyze the effects of September 11 on thelonger run prospects for the New York City economy. We findthat, on the one hand, several downside risks to the city’sgrowth outlook have arisen. In a worst-case scenario, theconcentration of the attack on Lower Manhattan has...

[...]Because of these concerns, this article examines the value ofthe Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey in predicting bothlending and output.1 We find that the changes in commercialcredit standards reported by loan officers are indeed linked toaggregate loan growth. Commercial lending by U.S....

[...]Our first suggestion is to reduce the fragmentation oftrading in STRIPS by assigning the same CUSIP number to allSTRIPS maturing on a common date—thus making thoseSTRIPS fungible with each other. In addition to enhancing theliquidity of the STRIPS market, this action would ensure...

[...]Inflation targeting in New Zealand followed legislationthat mandated a Policy Targets Agreement (PTA)between the elected government and the newlyindependent central bank, which resulted in a jointlydecided numerical target for inflation.[...]

Interest in commodity prices as indicators of consumerprice inflation has ebbed and flowed withthe rise and fall in commodity prices themselves.True to form, as commodity prices have surged inthe last two years (Chart 1), interest in their predictivepower has returned. Inflation hawks point to...