In recent years, the dynamics of M3 in the euro area have been driven by two factors: a strong preference for liquidity, observed between 2001 and 2003, followed by a normalisation, at a relatively moderate pace, of portfolio behaviour; as regards the counterparts, changes in M3 and net external...

We study the role of monetary policy when asset-price bubbles may form due to herd behavior in investment in an asset whose return is uncertain. To that aim, we build a simple general-equilibrium model whose agents are households, entrepreneurs, and a central bank. Entrepreneurs receive private...

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the interconnectedness between macroeconomic and financial stability and has raised the question of whether and how to combine the corresponding main policy instruments (interest rate and bank-capital requirements). This paper offers a characterization...

In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...

This paper investigates how the identification assumptions of monetary policy shocks modify the inference in a standard DSGE model. Considering SVAR models in which either the interest rate is predetermined for money or these two monetary variables are simultaneously determined, two DSGE models...

The Generalized Calvo and the Generalized Taylor model of price and wage-setting are, unlike the standard Calvo and Taylor counterparts, exactly consistent with the distribution of durations observed in the data. Using price and wage micro-data from a major euro-area economy (France), we develop...

This paper investigates the effects of disinflation policies on key macroeconomic variables. Using postwar US data and episode techniques, we identify disinflation shocks as shocks that drive the inflation rate to a lower level in the long-run. We find that in the immediate aftermath of a...

The Euro area as a whole has experienced a marked downward trend in inflation over the past decades and, concomitantly, a protracted period of depressed activity. Can permanent and gradual shifts in monetary policy be held responsible for these dynamics? To answer this question, we embed...

This article assesses monetary policy's performances in the Euro zone in the face of supply shocks. We determine the responses of output, inflation, labor share and the nominal interest rate to a supply shock as identified through a structural VAR model. We then develop a DSGE model with nominal...

Euro area countries as a whole have experienced a marked downward trend over the 1980s. Over this period, the unemployment rate has increased and economic activity has been sluggish. Changes in the implicit inflation target, viewed as low frequency movements of inflation, might possibly explain...