Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out...

Europa sieht sich mit einer demographischen Entwicklung konfrontiert, die den Prognosen zufolge die wirtschaftliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und den Erhalt der sozialen Standards gefährdet. Vor dem Hintergrund dieser Entwicklung beauftragte die Bundesgeschäftsstelle des AMS Österreich die ÖSB...

The autumn forecast for Swiss health expenditure covers the years 2008 to 2011 (official data range to 2007). For the year 2008, the forecast assumes a higher-than-average growth in health expenditure. While a still solid growth is expected for the year 2009, a cooling down as a consequence of...

The spring forecast for Swiss health expenditure covers the years 2008 to 2010 (official data range to 2007). For the year 2008, the forecast assumes a higher-than-average growth in health expenditure. While a still solid growth is expected for the year 2009, a cooling down as a consequence of...